To address this concern, why not refer directly to the data? We offer confidence percentages for each forecast, to provide a more clear understanding of the reliability of the results.
We understand that you rely on forecasted data to make important business decisions. While we provide forecasts for all wells, it's important to note that our level of confidence in the results can vary. Some wells have enough data for us to be extremely confident in the forecasted results, while others may lack sufficient data for us to have a high level of confidence. Additionally, as we forecast further into the future, our confidence naturally decreases.
Production Forecast Summary
Find the confidence levels in the production forecast summary export, along with detailed information on the chosen fit type for each stream and the B values.
Decrease in Confidence Over Time
The chart provided below illustrates how our confidence in the forecasted results decreases over time for these selected examples.
Note: The lower confidence level in the 5-year EUR forecast for the last well can be attributed to its shorter production history when compared to the first three wells in the list.